Good morning,

The market is heating up a bit judging from the investor’s appetite this year - we have a quick technical look at the top of the market from both Euro and US lens this weekend.

Enjoy,
Dragos

PS In London for most of the first part of the month, HMU for coffee, beer etc.

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Market talk

Earlier this month over at Nordic9 we did a couple of cheat sheets deep diving into the tier one investors’ deals activity from the past five quarters. Split into:

  • Americans - a16z, Accel, General Catalyst, Lightspeed, Sequoia Capital, GV, Khosla Ventures, Headline

  • Europeans - Index Ventures, Balderton Capital, EQT Ventures, Atomico, Northzone, Lakestar, Partech

Got all sorts of strategic details at granular level, particularly interesting if you’re deep down into the European VC business. Those guys are at the top of the market, and understanding their behavior is a good reality check of how it’s changing and where it’s going.

We sent our findings to our customers - you can access the reports and the master spreadsheets from the cheat sheet section should you decide to become one as well.

Below some EU/US comparison notes with what I found:

  • the market is heating up as both sides ramped up spending into 2026, with Balderton hitting 11 deals (its five Qs peak) in Q1 this year. a16z, GC, Sequoia similarly showed no slowdown.

  • the Americans operate at greater volume & confidence based on this five quarters sample size i.e 8 Americans firms wrote 247 deals vs 7 Europeans firms at 189. And that's before accounting for the fact that the Americans here probably represents only a fraction of actual US activity in the period.

  • US firms dominate the EU late-stage - GC, Lightspeed, Sequoia or a16z appear as EU cohort co-investors, while European rounds at $100M+ almost always include a US growth fund filling the round.

    However, the Americans also have a higher early-stage ratio (41% seed+early vs 31% for Europeans) - that’s because the likes of Sequoia, a16z (both via scouts and accelerators) or General Catalyst are running broad early-stage European pipelines as sourcing infrastructure, with late-stage conviction reserved for their best findings. European firms are more growth-biased in aggregate.

  • London is the consensus as the primary European entry point for either side. Despite Brexit, despite the relative valuation premiums, and despite the political uncertainty and the country being a mess - UK companies represent 33-39% of transactions for every fund in this analysis. English language, London's talent density, and US-compatible legal structures make it the default European VC market for both cohorts.

  • UK + Germany = 52% of all new European portfolio companies - it's a concentration risk yet an opportunity signal for founders outside those markets. Within that, Balderton is 41% Germany-focused and Northzone 43% Nordic. Lakestar is the outlier - active in 12 countries including Ukraine and Poland. The UK concentration is also among US firms (39%), partly explained by GV's extreme British skew (73%).

  • public money still rules the Euro market aka sovereign capital as a local differentiator. BpiFrance, British Business Bank, KfW and NATO’s Fund are all active alongside the established players. It’s an European thing and you can look at it in two ways - either a market vulnerability or a de-risking process the American firms don't have in their home market at comparable scale or frequency.

  • we are on an AI supercycle - both groups are heavily skewed on AI as they have undergone the same structural market shift moving on from being generalist. Three years ago, the market was more bet-diverse (fintech, ecommerce, health, marketplaces) - the 2025-26 track indicates that we have an AI VC market, with software and AI accounting for 80%+ of sector tags across almost every investor in this peer set.

  • the European funds differentiate through conviction rather than scale - it is the beginning of a trend, notable from a data divergence from the above, with no American equivalent i.e Lakestar is pivoting to defence/hardware (manufacturing 13, defense 10). That means Europeans have started building a distinct industrial-AI competence, which is an evident differentiation versus the Americans - though not part of the analysis, Plural’s past 6-12 months records are also a good example in this sense.

  • competition is higher than cooperation - the Europeans make for a network for firms operating in the same geography targeting the same companies, clearly seeing many of the same opportunities and mostly not investing together. It’s competitive - they're all raising from overlapping LP bases and fighting for the same top Euro VC positioning, so co-investing creates a signalling problem. They're also competing for pro rata rights at followon rounds, where the real money is made, so sharing early may be strategically costly.

  • Europeans originate and lead early while US firms participate late and at scale - it looks collaborative on the captable, but you can also argue that the Americans are buying into a price set by someone else's conviction, with a sizeable check, and in many cases taking more of the late-stage upside. It’s lucrative - the EU firm gets validation and round completion and the US firm gets access to deal flow it didn't originate.

    It’s also a structural European weakness as collaboration happens where a deal is too large for any single European firm - that's where you will see Americans dealing, and a reason for the Europeans mega funds emergence, including last week’s EU 5B scale fund.

Signals

We have screened 121 fundraising deals closed in Europe in the past seven days.

We archive/transform deal-related data into an easy-searchable intelligent asset at N9, and email a selection of the interesting ones to our customers every week.

Interesting early stage deals

🇩🇪ComplyDo​ - agentic compliance platform
🇪🇸 Didit - AI-native identity verification and fraud prevention platform
🇩🇰Realmforge​ - AI director for interactive entertainment

Cheat sheets

Startups under the radar

  • Dragos, appreciate the shoutout on nordic9 - someone had told me they learned about us via there. Very much appreciated 🙏🙏” - startup founder.

  • 313 out of the 537 early stage startups we put on the radar last year raised an ulterior round - that's almost 60%.

  • it’s what investors look for and what media will catch up with about six months later. Same goes for the stealth founders, btw.

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Also notable

  • BP fired its board chair over concerns including bullying and overbearing behaviour - he had been on the job less than a year.

  • Polymarket and Kalshi were banned in Spain.

  • EU defence chief urges states to stop making haute couture missiles.

  • Influencers dressing up startups for the American stock market, the Ukrainian drone edition.

  • The migration rates of startups reveals the economy where you want to be to grow and succeed

  • Robinhood launched agentic trading and an agentic credit card for letting AI agents to trade equities and make credit card purchases on customers' behalf. As a side, a few months ago I built an agentic setup for finding alpha in Polymarket/Kalshi trades - made some beer money, learnt a ton from it.

  • Google's Nick Fox on the future of search and AI

  • Peter Thiel moved to Argentina partly motivated by concerns about the future of the United States and shared beliefs with Argentina’s right-wing leader.

  • US airlines say travel demand is strong despite economic headwinds.

  • The Italian decline - interesting read + the marketing materials were made explicitly with AI.

  • Predictions for Singapore over the next 10 years.

  • Some investors are ghosting the market - there’s a good tool to find out which.

  • Ranking VCs differs sharply from the Midas list published by Forbes.

  • Inside Putin's $26 billion quest for longevity.

  • AI skepticism grows among US youth.

  • Is this investor a fit for my raise?

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Created every Sunday by @drnovac of Nordic 9 with weekly notes and observations from the European startup ecosystem.

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