Hey there,
This week:
European rich are all herding to move their money all of a sudden - where and why.
what does the first quarter data tells about the European early stage market
Enjoy,
Dragos

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Market talk
The money allocation problem
The story of the week → Partners Group’s decision to cap withdrawals on its $8.6B flagship evergreen fund. Investor redemption requests reached roughly 9.8% of net asset value, exceeding the fund's quarterly redemption limit of 5%. It’s not an isolated incident, as Blackstone did the same and restricted flagship fund withdrawals this week.
This didn't come out over night - it started building in dedicated private credit vehicles earlier this winter, then migrated into private equity structures, and they’re the most visible symptoms of a much broader liquidity event.
For those not familiar with market, it looks like a regime change - the past five years saw a major push by alternatives managers to sell PE and private credit to HNWIs. Today, private equity no longer looks uniquely attractive for those guys - it’s illiquid, expensive, opaque, with relative modest returns - all while the opportunity costs are getting bigger.
These withdrawals are a rebalancing and there’s an obvious explanation for where this money could be going: the coming SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, which combine about $3.5tn in equity, and making for historic retail demand. On point, SpaceX has specifically outlined plans to reserve an unprecedented 30% of its IPO for retail investors - as an anecdote, all my friends are scrambling cash to go into SpaceX.
Also directionally important to note is Robinhood’s newly launched index available to retail investors and anchored to an SPV indexing private companies - again, a lever of migrating the money from a dumb fund into where the alpha is.
Money trapped in evergreen funds doesn’t make sense in a world where the information asymmetry is lower now that folks think are chatgpt smarter and Elon, Dario and Sam keep promising that AI will soon replace all humans for labour. Using their tools every day while having access to real time private company data, secondaries markets, and media coverage makes it easy for building and making a conviction thesis. Everybody wants to back the winners, them dudes are it, and retail investing is how it’s done.
Early stage notes
Last month I did a presentation to a group of GPs and LPs with what I am seeing in the VC market in Europe. Below a selection from the notes about the early stage activity from the first quarter of the year.
Excluding these two, the rest of European early stage Q1 is $1.62B across 546 disclosed rounds - which makes for a rather conventional market.
24.6% of European pre-seed and seed rounds included American capital - those rounds absorbed 76.7% of all disclosed capital. Most of the US money went into AI infra & devtools, which as a category had a spend of $2.23B in for the quarter, or 59% of all European disclosed early stage capital. Americans also were notably present in legaltech, defense & dual use, and cybersecurity.
The investment consensus is in vertical AI, semiconductors or advanced hardware while verticals Europeans seem to betting on that US capital is ignoring include proptech, construction, vertical B2B marketplaces, healthtech and energy+climate.
Vertical / agentic AI represents about a quarter of all the European pre-seed/seed deals - the largest single cluster in the broader market for Q1. Judging from the past five quarters evolution, it kind of hit a ceiling around 130 transactions: 120 deals (Q1-25) → 140 (Q2-25) → 134 (Q3-25) → 133 (Q4-25) → 130 (Q1-26).
Climate deals turned into a sovereign type of vertical - Hexana and Hades Mining are lead examples of a category below the 2025 quarter average frequencies, but with a higher average check ($5.7M).
Consumer plays are long gone as they’re mostly lifestyle deals backed by angels - here just for my personal belief that we will see a consumer resurgence if only for what goes down must come up eventually, while FB and Linkedin are 20 years old dinosaurs.
Fintech, robotics, gaming are all going down - while in fintech all eyes are on Revolut and Stripe non-IPO moves, it’s especially interesting for robots, which is a hot topic with tons of marketing and scouting but a capex intensive, hard to build category, which the Chinese makes it extremely cost competitive. Still early on the tech development cycle, for now robotics framing has transitioned rather into vertical AI applications while the physical AI narrative is being complemented by the agent narrative.
The European multistage funds are not really multistage anymore - they are quasi-absent from taking early stage risks, a trend that's taken shape for a while i.e 80% of European multistage checks in the past 5 quarters allocated at later stage. American ones, in contrast, are more active at early stage, in part due to an indirect GTM via scouts and accelerators + more marketing. YMMV and there are obvious exceptions, usually expensive, but it’s the real talk - the outside noise makes the local early stage market seem more hyped than it is. Btw, a good tell about the quality of this market is Point Nine Capital buying into Anthropic’s $30B series G - the Germans manage a typical early stage 200M investment fund.
The only notable new entrant to what seems to be an established and rather predictable MO: 20vc, which has evolved by stealing the playbook of the American blueprint expansion doubled down by a mainstream podcast, which plays a marketing role more efficient than many GPs would like to admit.
Founders Fund is now doing European defence - namely Onodrim's $47M seed, which is the largest non-billion-dollar deal of the quarter and the first time for Founders Fund doing Euro defence (second if we count the unconfirmed Stark's 300M C also led by FF). Founders Fund has been shy about Euro biz as Peter Thiel did defense deals in Europe via Thiel Capital, which is his de facto family office, while Thiel's most active vehicle in Europe by far, Valar, is focused on fintech -> see FF Euro portfolio.
As a closing oddity, Bezos Expeditions, Jeff Bezos personal family office, notably chipped in to AMI Labs mega round. He's doing rarely personal European checks - fwiw, last year, he also invested in Nebius via Toloka along Shopify’s Russian CTO (Nebius is run by Russians in Amsterdam) and in Rivr (acquired eventually by Amazon this winter).
Signals
We have screened 103 fundraising deals closed in Europe in the past seven days.
We archive/transform deal-related data into an easy-searchable intelligent asset at N9, and email a selection of the interesting ones to our customers every week.
Interesting early stage deals
🇪🇸 Opereit - AI agents for the logistics business
🇩🇪 Ovra - agentic payment infra
🇬🇧 Sky Valley Ambient Computing - adaptive software product
Cheat sheets
Top 180 most active investors in Europe in Q1 2026 (free to access but need account)
Tier one European investors and their (190) Euro deals from the past year.
Tier one American investors and their (250) Euro deals from the past year.
Euro startups at YC spring 2026.
Active investors - mega deals, early stage fundings in April.
Europe’s most active late stage investors.
Europe’s most active AI investors
Europe’s most active angels
Startups under the radar
“Dragos, appreciate the shoutout on nordic9 - someone had told me they learned about us via there. Very much appreciated 🙏🙏” - startup founder.
313 out of the 537 early stage startups we put on the radar last year raised an ulterior round - that's almost 60%.
it’s what investors look for and what media will catch up with about six months later. Same goes for the stealth founders, btw.
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Also notable
France announced 71 foreign investment projects worth a combined €93 billion, mostly centered on artificial intelligence and data centres.
Prosus gets until October 11 for Delivery Hero sale after Uber takeover bid at €10B - Prosus was required to reduce its stake in DH as part of the remedies that secured EU approval for its acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway. The original commitment required Prosus to sell down its Delivery Hero holding within a set period.
Balderton is running a timely marketing campaign called Built in Europe.
A Spanish soccer team on the brink of being kicked to a lower league hedged its risk by placing a multimillion-dollar bet against itself on Kalshi - losing the game would have meant millions in lost ticket and broadcast revenue. They won though - on the other side of the Spanish team’s trade was Susquehanna, which took home more than $1 million.
Gold has officially replaced US Treasuries as the world’s largest central bank reserve asset, per ECB - accounts for 27% of global official reserves compared to the 22% held in US government bonds
French billionaire Pierre-Edouard Sterin is pleading with lawmakers to modify rules so he can disinherit his five children, saying he prefers to give his fortune to charity.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary wants UK airports to curb morning alcohol sales, saying drunken passengers now force the low-cost carrier to divert nearly one flight a day. The Brits are obviously against the idea.
Anthropic calls for pause of global AI development.
Apple is expected to announce a revamped Siri next week at WWDC.
SpaceX IPO 17-minute video pitch.
A 560 kg iron meteorite exploded over Massachusetts in the US.
Linkedin is not only full of useless noise makers but also of Chinese spies.
Some investors are ghosting the market - there’s a good tool to find out which.
The ideas worth stealing from what YC tells you what to build.
The Knicks are 2-0 on the NBA Finals and third game is in NYC on Monday, when Trump is expected to attend. Cheapest ticket price is $8k.
Is this investor a fit for my raise?
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Created every Sunday by @drnovac of Nordic 9 with weekly notes and observations from the European startup ecosystem.
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